Who could follow Miggledy?

Procedure

There are a number of hurdles that will show up before the election that will likely shape the candidate list that we'll come across. Obviously any prospective candidate must be a citizen over 35 years of age but they also need to receive a nomination from either:

• 20 Members of the Oireachtas or
• 4 County Councils

I will discuss what this means for each party/candidate.

Potential Candidates

By Party

Fianna Fáil

Fianna Fáil have not been explicit with their plans for nominating a candidate. With 67 elected members in the Oireachtas, they will definitely be able to nominate a candidate and as the only party with a majority in any of the councils (Clare), they would also likely have the easiest path to a nomination.

There seem to be 5 main names that are being thrown about for consideration within the party. Most notable amongst them is the former Taoiseach, Bertie Ahern. Who will likely be hoping that nostalgia and near universal name recognition could help him out. However, I doubt that all press is good press really holds for a figure like Bertie and the party might be starting to feel that.

Otherwise, they have 4 total MEPs (a position that translates very easily as you've already campaigned before a third of the presidential electorate), 2 of which appear to have been floating the idea of running: Dublin's Barry Andrews and the South's Cynthia Ní Mhurchú. Both would offer strong enough bases, where Andrews has a lot of sway in non-traditionally Fianna Fáil voting circles (close ties to Sinn Féin through his brother and to Fine Gael voters as evidenced by his electoral bases) while Ní Mhurchú could gain a boost with her RTÉ background, although her personal electorate isn't nearly as strong.

Pundits have put forward forward Deputy Leader and Minister for Tourism et al, Mary Hanafin forward as a potential candidate (and she has been happy to leave this rumours float), although the fact that she has consistently failed to win elections and party nominations, in my eyes would remove her from consideration. We have also seen now-former Ceann Comhairle Seán Ó Fearghaíl being speculated as a candidate, and while he would likely definitely have the backing of his parliamentary party, he is essentially an electoral unknown for any recent period.

An Taoiseach Micheál Martin himself, seemed like a shoe-in as one of the most popular politicians in the country and having likely done his time as leader, it would have been an easy retirement path. However, he has officially declined to run so we won't see him on the ticket.

Of the candidates, if I had to bet, I think Bertie has been much too loud for much too long to not get picked but if not him, I'd argue that the party would be won over by Ní Mhurchú's pitch.

Fine Gael

Fine Gael has openly announced that it will be fielding a candidate for the presidency, and with 55 elected members of the oireachtas, they definitely won't struggle to put forward a candidate.

As things stand, there are three main names being floated from their benches. The first and foremost of these being former European Commissioner Mairéad McGuinness. With strong political credentials, a strong electoral base (having topped the poll in the Midlands-North West consituency in 2019), and strong polling (topping every presidential poll she has been included in). The only way she doesn't get the nominee is if she doesn't want it, and if she does run, she's definitely a contender for the Áras.

If McGuinness doesn't run, the party will likely be choosing between Simon Coveney and Seán Kelly. Coveney clearly has strong support within the grassroots and strong enough international credentials, though Kelly has the larger tested base, having topped the poll in the South constituency in 2024 and 2019.

The party does have a host of other candidates who would do well, although most have declined to run, namely Frances Fitzgerald, Enda Kenny, Leo Varadkar, and Heather Humphreys.

Sinn Féin

Having been the only major party to field a seperate candidate in 2018, Sinn Féin should be expected to look for a name within their ranks, and with 45 Members of the Oireachtas, they will have no difficulty nominating whoever they choose.

The party seems to have settled on two main options as their selection.